Warren, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

661
FXUS63 KDTX 112003
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
403 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a rumble of thunder late tonight and Sunday morning
  precede the beginning of a new warming trend that holds for the
  bulk of next week.

- Southwest wind gusting in the 30-40 mph range develops Sunday
  afternoon helping to lift temperatures into the 70s.

- The pattern also becomes active for periods showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday night through Wednesday.

- There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Monday night and
  Tuesday morning.

- Locally heavy rainfall potential also increases during the mid week
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A postcard early to mid April Saturday afternoon is in progress as
high pressure controls conditions across SE Mi. It brings in a cool
and dry air mass that needs full sun to finish lifting high
temperatures just to near normal values in the lower to mid 50s.
Readings struggle to climb out of the 30s near Lake Huron with a
light onshore wind component setting up the standard cooler near the
Lakes exception.

Upstream observations across the Midwest this afternoon preview
changes that get underway in the Great Lakes tonight leading to
increasing coverage of rain showers toward sunrise. Progression of
larger scale 500 mb structures shifts surface high pressure quickly
to the Atlantic coast while the next low pressure center organizes
in the Dakotas. This low interacts with the stalled TN valley front
to rapidly accelerate moisture transport and isentropic ascent into
Lower Mi during the night, although greater coverage and intensity
of the resulting showers/rumble of thunder develops toward the
northern Great Lakes aligned with the low level jet maximum. Model
soundings also show dry air lingering below 850 mb that at least
pushes back against intensity toward the Tri Cities, and both
intensity and coverage toward metro Detroit. Near categorical POPs
along and north of M-46 are Ok for coverage while leaning toward the
lower end of the QPF guidance range, generally less than 0.25 inch
before the pattern shifts north by afternoon.

The rest of Sunday sees advancement of the warm sector into Lower Mi
during the afternoon and evening. The key here is the parent surface
low deepening well north toward the MN arrowhead which helps veer
the wind SW and drive the warm front northward against the cooler
Great Lakes aggregate. A stray shower or thunderstorm could
originate off the surface to mid level theta-e ridge nearby to the
west and affecting mainly the Tri Cities as model soundings indicate
some afternoon surface based CAPE. Scattered to broken clouds are
more likely over the rest of SE Mi making gusty SW wind and warm
temperatures the weather highlight. Hi-res model soundings support
HREF mean gusts potentially in the 30-40 mph range which helps lift
temperatures into the mid and upper 70s, and mainly from the I-69
corridor southward across metro Detroit.

For Sunday night into Monday, there appears to be a considerable MCV
signal in today`s 12Z models originating from southern Plains
convection tonight and Sunday. A nocturnal convective increase is
expected over Lower Mi as the theta-e ridge crosses the area Sunday
night with a nocturnal/low level jet instability boost, however the
forecast leans away from the higher end QPF totals in range of
deterministic solutions. Blended guidance offering 0.25" to 0.5"
late Sunday night and Monday morning looks more reasonable compared
to totals exceeding 1 inch that rely on a mesoscale feature with low
predictability.

The air mass gains an even greater summer feel after showers/storms
decrease again Monday afternoon. Surface Td is projected to touch
the lower 60s while high temperatures range from around 70 Tri
Cities to mid/upper 70s metro Detroit. James Bay low pressure has a
cold front extending through Upper Mi which settles into central
Lower Mi Monday night and which is held in place by central Plains
low pressure. The warm and humid air mass over southern Lower Mi
then becomes capable of greater instability heading into Monday
night and Tuesday morning, the SPC Day 3 general thunder/marginal
risk time period tied to an area of slight risk in the Midwest. The
outlook carries low predictability due to the changing position of
the surface front and an expected transition from surface based to
elevated convection, both of which are a moving target at this point
in the forecast process.

The central Plains low pressure system keeps the mid week period
convectively active as well. This system presents a somewhat rare
Day 4 SPC outlook for Lower Mi is it tracks into northern Ontario
Tuesday and Wednesday. The trailing cold front lingers nearby during
the mid week period and also becomes the focus for heavy rainfall
potential. Otherwise, daytime temperatures hold in the 70s with no
real air mass change expected until closer to next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure center exits Lower Michigan this evening, heading
toward the eastern Great Lakes overnight. Light and variable winds
near the anticyclone will begin to organize south-southeasterly,
amidst ensuing return flow. Gradual gradient constriction causes sub-
10 knot winds to rise tonight, exceeding 20 knots for the northern
half of Lake Huron by sunrise Sunday. Expect a more active week of
weather, beginning Sunday morning, as showers move in ahead of a
decaying line of nocturnal thunderstorms. Locally higher winds and
waves are possible as convection works across the Huron basin, but
lower column stability should limit overall gustiness. Potential
still exists for brief gusts to gales late Sunday into Monday as a
65+ knot low-level jet moves through the central Great Lakes. The
main area of concern will be Saginaw Bay given funneling southwest
flow, but it is possible that the stronger gusts extend further
south into Lake St. Clair and western Erie, and/or The Straits.
Several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the week due to a series of troughs, low pressure
systems, and fronts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

AVIATION...

High pressure governs conditions across lower Michigan this
afternoon and evening, maintaining light easterly flow and SKC
through tonight. Upper level moisture then moves into the region
early Sunday morning, with a gradual build down of cloud bases
toward 5.0 kft agl. A band of concentrated low level moisture then
lifts into the airspace between 09z-13z along an elevated warm
front, triggering showers and possibly a rumble of thunder mainly
toward MBS/FNT. Less confidence in rain potential exists toward DTW
where dry air may cause rain to evaporate before reaching the
ground. This also places the best chance for a brief period of MVFR
cigs/vsbys over the Saginaw Valley. The surface warm front then
lifts into the airspace Sunday afternoon causing winds to veer to
the southwest. Gusty winds and scattering low cloud are anticipated
as the boundary layer destabilizes.

For DTW... there is a low chance for a rumble of thunder Sunday
morning as a band of rain lifts into Lower Michigan. If a
thunderstorm does develop, it is most likely between 09z and 13z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings below 5000 ft today. Moderate later tonight into
  Sunday.

* Low for thunderstorms Sunday morning, mainly between 09z and 13z.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....MV


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.